Corey Noles, staff writer for The Daily Statesman and Editor of The North Stoddard Countian, is the author of a regular baseball/St. Louis Cardinals column and also uses his blog to sound off on various happenings in sports. He also operates a weekly baseball mailbag column.

How Does the Cardinals' Rotation Compare to the Reds'?

Posted Thursday, March 14, 2013, at 9:39 PM

As the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds face off in 2013 and battle for the National League Central Division title, the two starting rotations could play a large role than they typically do.

With the Cardinals losing both Chris Carpenter and Kyle Lohse, they have to depend more on the "young guns" in their organization. While that might sound like a weakness, don't be too fast to judge.

The Cardinals have had an intense competition during spring training for just the fifth starter job. As a result, they will be sending pitchers to the minor leagues that other teams would love to have on their major league rosters.

The Cardinals and Reds face each other 19 times in 2013, including four games in Cincinnati the first week of September that could be a turning point in the season for either team. Of the 19 games, nine will be in St. Louis and 10 in Cincinnati.

Following is a breakdown of how the two rotations look side-by-side and who has the advantage.

5. Shelby Miller/Joe Kelly vs. Aroldis Chapman

Since there is no definitive word yet on who will have the fifth starter slot, we'll look at both Shelby Miller and Joe Kelly. Miller, with limited major league experience, has always been a starter and projects to be a very good one in the near future. If he can continue to work on his off-speed delivery and perfect it, that will give him the extra tool he has needed for quite some time.

Joe Kelly played a vital role in getting the Cardinals all of the way to the NLCS in 2012. Without him stepping up in Garcia's, and later Lynn's absence, it would have been difficult for the Cardinals to climb back. He's not a flashy pitcher, but he is consistent in any role--starter, long relief, closer.

Aroldis Chapman is currently one of the most feared closers in all of baseball. While he could become a quality starter, there will be some differences. Don't expect to see that 100+mph fastball repeatedly of 6-7 innings, because he will have to learn the ability to pitch less explosive and with more finesse. This will be a serious adjustment for Chapman and is why many think moving him to the rotation is a waste and could seriously hurt the Reds in 2013.

Advantage: Miller/Kelly

4. Lance Lynn vs. Homer Bailey

These two could be an interesting matchup. For Lance Lynn to match his 2012 win total would require everything to go right for him. It's not impossible, but in all likelihood a good season for Lynn in 2013 would mean about 13 wins and a 3.60 ERA. He will have some adjustments to make with his new slimmer frame, but once he gets in his groove he could pile up a higher innings total which is something the Cardinals like to see from him.

Bailey is a very comparable pitcher whose 2013 numbers should look very similar to Lynn's. He's no ace pitcher, but if he pulls out more than 10 wins in the number four slot he's a definite asset to the Reds organization. Because Lynn is more of a strikeout pitcher, he will have a hard time matching Bailey's innings total which gives the Reds a slight edge in the four slot. The ability to go deeper in games means they should be able to give their bullpen some extra rest on some days when he throws.

Advantage: Bailey

3. Jake Westbrook vs. Mat Latos

Cardinals starting pitcher Jake Westbrook, a number five starter in 2012, bumps up to the three slot in 2013. That means he will be facing better starting pitching, so it's entirely possible his run support will be lower this season. One thing he has on his side is an extremely high ground ball percentage (58 percent) and that played a major role in his 14 wins last year. With potentially a stronger second baseman in Matt Carpenter behind him, that could also bode in his favor.

Mat Latos also had a very good 2012 in Cincinnati--and it could have been even better. In his limited spring exposure he already looks good and could be a real x-factor in the Reds rotation this season. A breakout season for Latos to the level where many believe he can reach could be the difference maker in their chase for the pennant.

Advantage: Latos

2. Jaime Garcia vs. Bronson Arroyo

Jaime Garcia was a bit of a wild card for the Cardinals in 2012 as he suffered through various ailments. If Garcia is fully healthy, as has been insinuated, then he should be able to pull out 12-14 wins and throw 200 innings. Garcia still struggles on the road, which has long been an issue for him. If he can get that split under control, it's possible he could hit 15. With that said, it will all hinge on health.

After a weak 2011, Bronson Arroyo started working back to form in 2012. He's still not the Arroyo of 2008-10, but he is a solid number two man. According to Fangraphs, baseball statistician Bill James is predicting him to go 12-12 with a 3.88 ERA. While that's well on pace for his 2012 numbers, a healthy Garcia would undoubtedly outduel a healthy Arroyo.

Advantage: Garcia

1. Adam Wainwright vs. Johnny Cueto

As the Cardinals and Reds face off and battle for the same division title in 2013, these two will take center stage.

Adam Wainwright, in the midst of his Tommy John surgery recovery, made a solid return in 2012. While he started out shaky, he ended the season with 14 wins in 198.2 IP with three complete games and two shutouts. Expect him to return to full form in 2013.

Johnny Cueto had an amazing year in 2012. His 19 wins and 217 IP are, by far, the best of his career. He should have a good 2013, but to expect those numbers may be overestimating him by a bit. I see him more in the 15-win range for 2013.

Advantage: Wainwright

Comments

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While I agree that the Cardinals rotation is indeed better than the Reds I do wonder how you decided the matchups Corey? In my mind Bailey is the fifth starter and Lynn is the third starter along with Westbrook at the four as well as Latos at the two dropping Arroyo to the three spot. This probably gives the Reds a three to five advantage by the way they are being measured in this post but I see two key problems with the determinants in this process.

1) Pitcher wins are literally the most useless stat in sports in my humble opinion and I can't take them seriously when projecting/judging a pitcher.

2) Cardinals starting pitcher Jake Westbrook, a number five starter in 2012, bumps up to the three slot in 2013. That means he will be facing better starting pitching, so it's entirely possible his run support will be lower this season.

I can't agree with this statement since after about one-three weeks off days and injuries have altered the matchups so much it is very rare that a staff lines up 1 through 5. Also "run support" only really effects win totals( in a pitcher's sense) which are just silly in my opinion.

-- Posted by Bunk on Thu, Mar 14, 2013, at 11:43 PM
I concur with Bunk on most of what he said.

Miller is pretty much a sure thing to be sent down. Miller was out pitched the other day by Kelly, so Miller will probably start off in AAA.

I would also take anyone over Jamie any day of the week. Jamie has the stuff, just not the cohones to be an elite pitcher.

I am interested to see how Lance Lynn adjusts this year. Hope that him losing weight helps him prolong success throughout the season, but will it make him lose any effectiveness?

Also the biggest question will be how Chapman translates to starting. He doesn't have a great change-up, and can he tone it back for 6-7 innings ? I don't know... hope he does he is on my fantasy team! ha!

-- Posted by Kobeyashi on Fri, Mar 15, 2013, at 8:47 AM
Its a terrible sign to send Miller down to Tiple A. There is nothing for him to do down there. Frankly it does him no good to send him down and I think a big problem that ALL OF YOU are missing is that Yadi Molina hasn't been behind the plate a lot during the preseason because of the WBC. It just doesn't make sense to me to send Miller down. Serves no purpose.

-- Posted by Jolly Dump on Fri, Mar 15, 2013, at 12:02 PM
Kelly did alright without Yadi... I THINK THAT'S SOMETHING YOU ARE OVERLOOKING!

-- Posted by Kobeyashi on Fri, Mar 15, 2013, at 12:27 PM
I would also take most of the pitchers in the Cardinals' rotation over Garcia with the exception of Jake Westbrook.

-- Posted by Dustin Ward on Fri, Mar 15, 2013, at 1:18 PM
Yes....But not Miller AND THAT IS SOMETHING YOU ARE IGNORING!!! Miller will be throwing to Yadi and he needs to be pitching to the best catcher in MLB. Sending Miller down is exactly what this team kept doing to Dan Haren.

-- Posted by Jolly Dump on Fri, Mar 15, 2013, at 2:32 PM
Miller shouldn't be sent down because of one outing period. There is a thing in baseball that holds true which is that you don't trust the small sample size(SSS). THursday is SSS pure, plain and simple. If we were to follow the SSS logic we should throw out Beltran and start Robinson at RF since he is winning the club's ST triple crown right now.

-- Posted by Bunk on Fri, Mar 15, 2013, at 7:08 PM
It's not based on one outing. This is based on the whole spring an experts said this may have put the nail in the coffin.

Miller is young and needs to throw. I would rather him go to AAA and pitch then be a bullpen guy for cards. When they need him to start then they can call him up. It's not rocket science. He needs to pitch

-- Posted by Kobeyashi on Fri, Mar 15, 2013, at 7:34 PM
Cardinals have enough bullpen help without sending their No. 6 starter to bullpen. Plus they need to keep that starter conditioned to start this year because they will have to call him up this year in the middle of the year.

-- Posted by Dustin Ward on Fri, Mar 15, 2013, at 7:36 PM
And Jolly what do we do if Yadi is sitting out and Shelby is starting? Skip his start? Because paid professionals just can't handle that.... Wait Joe Kelly did and everyone else

-- Posted by Kobeyashi on Fri, Mar 15, 2013, at 7:38 PM
Realy kobeyashi? That's your argument? That's a terrible argument. If if if....if and buts were candy and nuts. How about that? Your argument is just folly and doesn't deserve a response. You don't send Miller down to Triple A, especially since he pitched just fine out of the bullpen last year. But the best choice is to start Miller as the #5 and not treat him like we did Dan Haren. But of course, your probably one of the ones who were happy with how we treated him.

-- Posted by Jolly Dump on Fri, Mar 15, 2013, at 8:53 PM
Miller is at the stage where he needs to start facing MLB talent every single start and not being shipped to and fro to the minors.

-- Posted by Jolly Dump on Fri, Mar 15, 2013, at 8:54 PM
I think Miller will be fine he just needs to get fully strected out and some experience. Spring Training is a little misleading when trying to judge guys. You don't know who is trying work on a certain pitch, how many pitches they can throw, if they're only allowed to throw certain pitches since it is early, and how much feel they have since its early. I think in the long run its a good idea to have Miller start and Kelly in the pen even if Miller struggles a bit in April

-- Posted by Bunk on Fri, Mar 15, 2013, at 9:00 PM
You and I agree Bunk.

Are you excited about Wacha like I am?

-- Posted by Jolly Dump on Fri, Mar 15, 2013, at 9:07 PM
Yes very much I hope he maintains this level of play at Memphis. I would love to see Westbrook and Garcia leave next year and us be able to run out Rosenthal and Wacha. Wacha just needs to keep improving the change up and curve and prove they can be consistent weapons along with that great control he has with his fastball

-- Posted by Bunk on Fri, Mar 15, 2013, at 9:13 PM
Jolly Dump you know what they say when you assume. Except take the me out of it, buddy. When did I ever say anything about Harren? Starting to think you and Dustin are buddies.

So ok lets put Miller into the bullpen will he throw before Rosenthal, Mujica, Boggs, Choate, or whoever else? My point is will he get enough consistent work out of the bullpen. I am saying he will pitch in the bigs, but I would want my young gun to get as much work as possible. That is all I am saying, so quit getting so dang offensive... geez.

-- Posted by Kobeyashi on Fri, Mar 15, 2013, at 10:34 PM
Didn't clarify what I meant. If that means in the bigs then keep him, if not then send him down.

I only want him in Memphis if he won't get enough work...

Does that make sense? Hope I don't get another Cap lock response.

-- Posted by Kobeyashi on Fri, Mar 15, 2013, at 10:39 PM
I'm not offended Kobeyashi I'm just talking ball. I think the fact that these are written posts makes tone much more difficult to discern than tone of a particular post. But I still think that Miller works much better as a starter than a reliever and you are letting his relatively small sample color your perception of his abilities.

-- Posted by Bunk on Fri, Mar 15, 2013, at 10:42 PM
I think four years of work in the minors is enough to get you to the show with his talent. He has had one small bad stretch in Memphis when he allowed his homerun rate to rise screwing up his season ERA. It really inflates the seasonal stats when you allow HRs so I am pretty much in the school of thought that he has pretty much handled all four levels of minor league ball without much incident. I think this qualifies him as a big leaguer.

-- Posted by Bunk on Fri, Mar 15, 2013, at 10:49 PM
What about a 6-man rotation until Westbrook or Garcia gets hurt? I'm not promoting that idea. Just including as a possible solution.

-- Posted by Dustin Ward on Sat, Mar 16, 2013, at 12:25 AM
Corey do you know the last team to start the season with a 6-man rotation?

-- Posted by Dustin Ward on Sat, Mar 16, 2013, at 12:27 AM
Something like this has been proposed to Mozeliak from time to time believe and Mozeliak always shoots it down.

-- Posted by Bunk on Sat, Mar 16, 2013, at 12:59 AM
Actually here is where I saw it during a chat in Feb on ESPN with Mo himself.

Andrew (Kansas City) [via mobile]

What is the plan with our Rotation and have you considered a 6 man Rotation to give injury prone players such as Carpenter and Garcia a break?

John Mozeliak (12:12 PM)

As far as a six man rotation, we've never been big advocates of that. I think our guys like working on regular rest. Most of our guys like to have that regular routine. We have to be prepared for injuries. But we do have depth, should we need someone to step in and start.

-- Posted by Bunk on Sat, Mar 16, 2013, at 1:04 AM
I'm not a big advocate of a 6-man rotation at all at the start of the season Bunk.

-- Posted by Dustin Ward on Sat, Mar 16, 2013, at 1:16 AM
Yeah just providing information DW. I don't think I would like it much either.

-- Posted by Bunk on Sat, Mar 16, 2013, at 1:28 AM
I don't think it would take to long to try and stretch out Kelly if he is in the long relief role or Rosenthal for that matter. As long as they are getting regular work in the pen.

-- Posted by Bunk on Sat, Mar 16, 2013, at 1:31 AM
I don't think I trade anything right now. I save all prospects incase I want to move Westbrook or Wainwright at trade deadline to a contender if I am out of the race.

But it is very hard to be out of the race with the new playoff format.

-- Posted by Dustin Ward on Sat, Mar 16, 2013, at 1:48 AM
Yeah I'm really not worried about our starting pitching depth and it's not a bad idea to ride Kozma to his max trade value since we are 95% sure he will eventually fall off. It's just there is a major risk in running that game that guys like Jenkins or Martinez which are the two most likely pitchers to be moved for SS help will get and hurt and Adams falls flat in limited at bats(SSS) and Kozma falls off( suckitude) all at the same time.

-- Posted by Bunk on Sat, Mar 16, 2013, at 1:53 AM
Bunk

If the Cardinals are in contention they will get a SS at the deadline if they don't have to devote all of their resources to getting starting pitcher(s).

-- Posted by Dustin Ward on Sat, Mar 16, 2013, at 2:00 AM
Out of curiosity which team do you think is most likely to win the division Bunk?

-- Posted by Dustin Ward on Sat, Mar 16, 2013, at 2:01 AM
I have told you before the Cardinals. If you think the Reds will roll like that again next year your nuts. If you think we will as bad a Jekell and Hyde offense as we did last year your nuts. We are the co favorites just accept it. They don't have to get SS to contend but it would things a lot easier we did well last year when Furcal started playing like a AAA player in May so it shouldn't be to hard. Also you do know that not every division in baseball has a clear frontrunner right? I think it's pretty safe to say Us, the Reds will contend in the Central, Nats/Braves in the East, Dodgers/Giants in the West. Those are the six teams to watch because they will pace the NL

-- Posted by Bunk on Sat, Mar 16, 2013, at 2:09 AM
I predict the Reds will win the divison Bunk.

-- Posted by Dustin Ward on Sat, Mar 16, 2013, at 2:22 AM
I like the Dodgers in the National League.

-- Posted by Dustin Ward on Sat, Mar 16, 2013, at 2:28 AM
Incorrect in my opinion. Cards, Giants, Nationals. Atlanta and Reds wildcards. It's a crapshoot to pick playoff winners this early but I think as long as the Cardinals show the ability to play 85 win plus baseball I'm taking them to the series every time.

-- Posted by Bunk on Sat, Mar 16, 2013, at 2:44 AM
It's a more popular opinion locally, Bunk.

-- Posted by Dustin Ward on Sat, Mar 16, 2013, at 2:45 AM
Bunk

Do the Yankees go all-out with it being Rivera's last year?

-- Posted by Dustin Ward on Sat, Mar 16, 2013, at 2:48 AM
All-in if you like poker.

-- Posted by Dustin Ward on Sat, Mar 16, 2013, at 2:49 AM
I mean their the Yanks don't they go all in every year? I think the honeymoon is over with spending big though. Hank is not his father when it comes to spending a ton of money. That probably is due to that luxury tax becoming the informal salary cap more than anything though. You look at it right now and their is not one young player on their team. Everyone is only getting older and a lot of them are getting hung up with injuries. Granderson, A-Rod, Jeter, and Teixera. These are the guys they need to hit well to compete and they are all pretty much injured. They could either all comeback effective and make the playoffs and end up losing to a superior team like the Angels or Detroit. I personally think the Rays and Jays make it out of the East this year. Seriously they are gonna have to rely on Jeter and Gardner to get on base in front of Cano and him go Pujols a la 06-10 and knock them in all by his self till the rest of the geezers get back.

-- Posted by Bunk on Sat, Mar 16, 2013, at 3:12 AM
Bunk

The Angels definitely have a legendary manager.

-- Posted by Dustin Ward on Sat, Mar 16, 2013, at 3:29 AM
He is good not a legend in my mind yet. He definitely could be but I would like to see his teams make it in and deeper in the postseason much more than it does

-- Posted by Bunk on Sat, Mar 16, 2013, at 6:14 PM
Bunk

Is he on his way soon enough?

-- Posted by Dustin Ward on Sun, Mar 17, 2013, at 1:40 AM
I would say so. I would also say I would take Him over Matheny in a heartbeat. But the word legendary isn't something I throw around to much. Besides Francona, Torre, TLR, Lou Pinella, and Tommy Lasorda would you say that has been a legendary manager in baseball the past 5 years-10 years?

-- Posted by Bunk on Sun, Mar 17, 2013, at 10:07 AM
Bunk how in the world do you forget Bobby Cox?

-- Posted by Jolly Dump on Sun, Mar 17, 2013, at 10:13 AM
I did forget Bobby Cox your right Jolly. But out the six I would put him in the lower half of the six with Lasorda and Pinella. I think it's pretty clear that Torre, Tony, and Francona will be talked about longer in history and probably get the names thrown around with Connie Mack and Sparky Anderson.

-- Posted by Bunk on Sun, Mar 17, 2013, at 10:29 AM
Really? How many consecutive division championships? Cox also has more career wins than Torre. Torre benefited greatly from an owner who spent money like an addicted gambler.

-- Posted by Jolly Dump on Sun, Mar 17, 2013, at 3:59 PM
Doesn't really change the fact that he won 3 titles in 4 years does it? That's hard to do just ask Joe Giradi who had all that money and a great team and only won one. I like Cox but here is my measurement that separates the two groups.

The first thing I think of when I hear Joe Torre is New Yankee Dynasty. When I hear LaRussa two Cardinal titles, a title in Oakland, first guy to win a WS in both divisions since Sparky, and master strategist. When I hear Francona? I think broke the curse and won two WS titles in Boston.

Now when I hear Pinella I think he threw base at a ref once. Cox I think he has the all time record in ejections and only won ONE title with those loaded Braves teams in the 90s. Lasorda I think "Just pull Pedro already ***************!"

You see my point they don't all instantly click as great when you think about them. Now upon further examination you realize they do but their legacies aren't exactly built completely around their winning and titles.

-- Posted by Bunk on Sun, Mar 17, 2013, at 4:29 PM
Well when I hear Bobby Cox I think about the dynasty his Braves team had in the 1990s with all those consecutive division titles.

-- Posted by Jolly Dump on Sun, Mar 17, 2013, at 4:44 PM
Dynasties are defined by World Series titles in my opinion not division titles.

-- Posted by Bunk on Sun, Mar 17, 2013, at 4:47 PM

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