Corey Noles, staff writer for The Daily Statesman and Editor of The North Stoddard Countian, is the author of a regular baseball/St. Louis Cardinals column and also uses his blog to sound off on various happenings in sports. He also operates a weekly baseball mailbag column.

Dingers, Doubles and D'Backs--Cardinals snag their first win

Posted Wednesday, April 3, 2013, at 11:44 AM

While a lot of things went wrong for the St Louis Cardinals when they opened the season in Arizona Monday night, they have a lot to feel good about on Wednesday morning.

Tuesday night the Cardinals unleashed power, pitching and good situational hitting against the D'backs. Maybe those things were still packed up from the trip to Florida on Monday night.

Regardless, it was all working on Tuesday.

Pete Kozma continues to make his case for the shortstop job. Aside from several impressive defensive plays, the transformed rookie jacked a rocket home run all of the way to centerfield that made a b-line off of the face of an unsuspecting female fan.

He's not a power hitter by any stretch of the imagination, but he is becoming a consistent hitter with flashes of power. The Oklahoma native wants the job, and if he keeps hitting like he has been he may just get to keep it.

Matt Holliday, however, was the one to break the home run bubble for the 2013 Cardinals when he busted the 1-1 tie with his two-run bomb.

While the season is only two days deep, Holliday looks very comfortable at the plate and seems to be seeing the ball well. Despite a base running error and misplayed deep fly on Monday, hes already having an impact on this years team. While many like to give Holliday a hard time every time he makes a mistake, the Cardinals depend heavily on his consistent offensive numbers year after year. This season shouldn't be any different for him.

Another consistent Cardinal is earning his keep on the active roster. Matt Carpenter doesn't seem to have missed a beat between Spring Training and the beginning of the season.

Only two games into the season, he already has three doubles and there's a good reason for that-Matt Carpenter is a doubles beast. Its that simple. Expect to see him high on the list of doubles in MLB stats at the end of 2013.

I'm not a fan of the decision to move him back to third base during the period where hes being transitioned to a second baseman. With that said, he made a pair of plays at the position Tuesday evening that looked very slick (No, I'm not talking about the skyball over Allen Craig's head.). Both his range and arm seem to follow wherever they stick Carpenter on the field.

That's a handy trait.

The bullpen also put on a good show last night.

Edward Mujica came into a nasty mess and with the bases loaded got a strikeout that managed to save the Cardinals momentum.

Without his K, its entirely possible the Cardinals would now be 0-2.

Trevor Rosenthal. 100 mph. K. Nasssty.

I think that story tells itself. If it doesn't, just look back at the footage of batters looking confused as they walked back to the dugout. That should fill in the gaps for you.

Mitchell Boggs, closer pro tem for lack of a better title, stepped in as closer. He looked confident on the mound and sealed up the Cardinals first win of 2013.

Matheny's decision to go ahead and bring in Boggs for the ninth inning was the right move. It was the perfect opportunity to get him his first ninth inning action of the season and do it with a comfortable lead. That way he can get a little confidence boost before his first save situation.

Outside of the sixth inning, Jaime Garcia looked encouraging. He had his wicked curveball working and seemed more both more confident and relaxed (outside of the sixth inning) than in the past.

The key for Garcia will be to get deeper into games. Now that hes a number two starter, the Cardinals will expect him to eat more innings-and rightly so.

Hes definitely capable.

This will be the year he has to really step up and get the job done.

His teammates are counting on him.

The Cardinals have a lot to feel good about after the first two games of the season. Sure, there will be some hiccups, but its still very early in the season. This is just a taste test.

I wouldn't lose any sleep over any concerns. (Disclaimer-I'm writing this at 1 a.m., so I'm already losing sleep. But, it's not Jaime's fault.)

These things have a way of working themselves out.

This week, the young guys are making it happen.

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It's always Jaime's fault. You know since he can't pitch on the road or in late innings of close games right?

-- Posted by Bunk on Wed, Apr 3, 2013, at 12:20 PM
Bunk, I dont understand the mockery there. It has been a consistent trait that Jaime struggles on the road. You can go back and look at all of his past season and the stats do not lie. He has a much higher ERA and higher opponent batting average in road games compared to home games.

-- Posted by Jolly Dump on Wed, Apr 3, 2013, at 3:47 PM
Because ERA is a perfect measurement for pitching performance in all instances

-- Posted by Bunk on Wed, Apr 3, 2013, at 9:03 PM
Also we assume that it is just because loses on the road that the reason he lost was because it was a road game not that he didn't pitch well, he was hurt, or he faced good hitters or matched up poorly against the opposing lineup. It's a lazy assumption to make without near enough proof to back it up besides one stat

-- Posted by Bunk on Wed, Apr 3, 2013, at 9:07 PM
2012 Stats: Home/Away

Home

ERA: 2.82

WHIP: 1.25

BAA: .281

HR: 0

R: 23

K: 53

BB: 12

H: 64

Away

ERA: 5.02

WHIP: 1.45

BAA: 2.98

HR: 7

R: 35

K: 45

B: 18

H: 72

There are 8 categories Bunk that show that Jaime is a much worse pitcher on the road...

-- Posted by John Unterreiner on Wed, Apr 3, 2013, at 9:42 PM
Garcia started two mores games on the road than at home.

-- Posted by John Unterreiner on Wed, Apr 3, 2013, at 9:44 PM
In three starts on the road against the Astros Jaime had a 7.20 ERA last season and his lone start against the Padres he had a 12.00 ERA. Not sure how you can claim his stats are bad because he's not matched up well...anybody is matched up well against Houston.

-- Posted by John Unterreiner on Wed, Apr 3, 2013, at 9:47 PM
Thanks for posting these stats John! I still don't understand the deniers, or those who refuse to accept has not been a good road pitcher.

-- Posted by Jolly Dump on Wed, Apr 3, 2013, at 11:48 PM
None of those stats besides ERA and HR are significantly higher than their home counterparts. Oh wait! Your saying that maybe ERA over calculates the impact of home runs?!?!?? Lets look at Lynn's ERA from one start this year because the small sample size will make it more evident. Lynn gave up a total if one run he currently has a 9.00 ERA. Why how can this be you ask? His one ER was a HR so of course that makes sense.

-- Posted by Bunk on Thu, Apr 4, 2013, at 9:01 AM
By the way two of those starts against Houston at Houston were the Jaime for injured game and then first attempt for Jaime to come back and he was lit up.

-- Posted by Bunk on Thu, Apr 4, 2013, at 9:04 AM
There is a huge discrepancy in his FIP as well( 1.94 versus 4) the xFIP is closer but the main point is that we can blame his poor numbers on two things a slighty higher walk rate and significantly higher HR rate on the road. The fact that he hasn't given up a HR at home is a great combo of park effects, skill, and dumb luck. I think it's ridiculous for us to assume that he pitches poorly at times because he IS ON the road instead that he pitched badly in games that HAPPENED to be in the road. That logic doesn't account for several variables( park effects, time zone switches, injury etc.). It also doesn't account for the outliers in his numbers like the HR discrepancy. It goes on to discredit Jaime when he pitches well like he did two nights ago as a lucky fluke. It also makes assumptions about Jaime's character on the field that hardly proven by those stats you gave.

-- Posted by Bunk on Thu, Apr 4, 2013, at 9:20 AM
Bunk, I absolutely could not make out your second post. But I will say you are being delusional to insist that there is not a difference when the stats tell us there is a difference. Even watching his games you can notice there is a difference. Rather its mental or whatever it is, there is a difference between a home game Jaime and a road game Jaime. It is not assumption, it is a fact and are you are incessant. You can go all the way back the past 3 or so years and the stats do not lie Bunk. Garcia has always been a bad road game pitcher. Of course he'll have a good game every now and then on the road, just like he'll have a bad game at game. But the fact of the matter is that you are denying stats. This is not a scientific experiment that you pick and choose what you want to make your argument. You are only denying the truth about Garcia bad road game history. Its not like we are using a short time frame. Go back and look at his last 3 seasons. The stats do not lie and you are making a mockery of the stats Bunk.

-- Posted by Jolly Dump on Thu, Apr 4, 2013, at 11:39 AM
I'm not discounting the stats( ERA is way overrated but that's a different argument) I'm making two points and I will try and be a little clearer this time

1) First and foremost most pitchers pitch worse on the road than do at home and they only real big difference in his stats that I can see that would be considered a significant difference( that is a statistical term not something I just make up it basically means the difference that you account a true difference between two occurances that isn't subject to variance) is his HR which horribly alter his ERA. There isn't enough evidence to state that Jaime is a worse pitcher on the road and not just victim of random occurances like giving up HRs in smaller parks on the road or being hurt and his performance suffering. Basically you guys are writing him off as a bad pitcher on the road when there is just not enough to prove its not a few bad starts coloring the perception.

2) Even if we except that Jaime is a significantly worse pitcher on the road we cannot conclude that it's because he cracks under pressure because frankly we aren't Jaime Garcia and we don't know what he is thinking or feeling no matter how much Al thinks he knows when he tells Jaime is immature.

-- Posted by Bunk on Thu, Apr 4, 2013, at 11:59 AM
I know it's not a simple argument to grasp when I say he isn't a Jaime a bad road pitcher he justs has had bad starts on the road. But if you want to cling to statistics you can't abandon the principles of sample size or systematic variation to account for some of the statistical gap between road and home.

-- Posted by Bunk on Thu, Apr 4, 2013, at 12:03 PM
But its not a small sample size. This is a consistent occurrence with him. And Al Hrobowski is one of the worst TV commentators out there. I have no respect for that man, because he is either clueless about baseball or cannot at least tell the truth about what is happening to a player or what is going on during a game. After the whole Mulder garbage I don't care for Al at all.

-- Posted by Jolly Dump on Thu, Apr 4, 2013, at 12:23 PM
Looking at last years stats where he missed about half the year yeah that is a smaller sample size. I'm not saying struggles aren't there but to say its because he is a basket case. I think he is better than what the surface numbers show

-- Posted by Bunk on Thu, Apr 4, 2013, at 12:35 PM
Bunk - I understand your argument, I do. However, your argument stating that his ERA is higher because he allows more homeruns is a step in proving my point. He allows more homeruns on the road because he is a worse pitcher on the road! He also allows opponents to hit 18 points higher on the road while walking more and striking out less...I mean I don't understand how you can claim there are other variations that go into it?? Bottom line is the man is not nearly as good on the road as he is at home.

Also, you keep saying because he was hurt. Yes he was hurt! But he didn't wake up for home starts and say "Man I'm not hurt - I feel great" and then turn around on a road start a week later and say "My arm is dead." I mean he was hurt both at home and on the road and the stats still showed he was a much poorer pitcher on the road. I know you'll attempt to argue the water in Houston had too many minerals and it made him pitch bad - but that's just a Jaime man crush.

I am not saying he cannot or will not become better pitching on the road. Nor will I cry every single time he allows a hit or homerun on the road (like I did on a previous Corey blog). But if you're asking me who I want to trot out in a must win road game - Jaime is my last pick from the Cards staff.

I think he has solid stuff and he's proven he can be dynamite on the road and at home before. But until he can consistently figure it out without having nearly double the ERA (which I know you hate the stat - but it's a major, important stat for a reason)then I will not trust the man to pitch well on the road.

-- Posted by John Unterreiner on Thu, Apr 4, 2013, at 12:46 PM
You do realize he pitched at Houston( Crawford boxes in all) took the beating said he was hurt rested for like a week or two per doctors orders came back at another game in Houston and got blew up again and then took 5 weeks off before pitching again right? He didn't pitch between the games at home at all and considering his innings and amount of run discrepancy that is a nice chunk of the difference in runs allowed home and road. The other thing is their are huge differences in park effects that drastically effect homeruns. The ball flies out in Colorado and Arizona do to the relatively thin air there. It also gets out much faster in Cincy, Philly, Houston, and other places because those are small parks. St. Louis on the other hand is probably the 7th maybe 6th best pitcher's park in MLB since it is quite big, it is very humid thick air, and has almost no wind problems. The key point is maybe he isn't as good at home as he appears and not near as bad as he is on the road

-- Posted by Bunk on Thu, Apr 4, 2013, at 1:51 PM
That is quite possibly the case. I can't pretend to know everything about Jaime except from the stats and what my own eyes see.

Either way I agree with 99% of all your other posts so I don't mind if I disagree with this one. Enough of Jaime...in other news, last night was a painfully tough loss.

-- Posted by John Unterreiner on Thu, Apr 4, 2013, at 2:50 PM
Okay....taking last year into account here are Garcia's CAREER STATS in Home vs. Away.

Home

W-L: 20-11

ERA: 2.48

GS: 39

IP: 258

ER: 71

HR: 13

AVG: .243

WHIP: 1.19

SO/BB: 208/78

Extra Base Hits (minus HRs): 41

Plus he has thrown 3 Complete Games Shutouts.

_______________________________

AWAY

W-L: 15-12

ERA: 4.40

GS: 43

IP: 243.3

ER: 119

HR: 23

AVG: .285

WHIP: 1.49

SO/BB: 190/86

Extra Base Hits (minus HRs): 54

-- Posted by Jolly Dump on Thu, Apr 4, 2013, at 4:14 PM
That is what I was talking about Bunk. If you look at his entire career, which is not a small sample size, the stats say he is not a good road game pitcher. He is an average pitcher on the road, whereas at home he is a very good pitcher. The stats don't lie.

-- Posted by Jolly Dump on Thu, Apr 4, 2013, at 4:16 PM
In the interest of moving on I will move on. Is anyone else on board with Lynn needs to stop throwing sinkers and pitching to contact because he has a legit 95-96 mph 4 seamer and even with the tremendous weight loss he is still built to overpower people with stuff bandwagon? Anyone on there yet because that's where I'm at

-- Posted by Bunk on Thu, Apr 4, 2013, at 4:23 PM
I'm more about the horrible start Salas is off too. And after last night I cannot wait for Motte to get back. I hate blown saves and Salas has been teed off in the 2 games he has pitched.

-- Posted by Jolly Dump on Thu, Apr 4, 2013, at 4:57 PM
I think it's hard to lay most of Salas struggles squarely on him. He pitched two innings yesterday and had 40 some odd pitches you can't expect him to hold the game especially after pitching the day before

-- Posted by Bunk on Thu, Apr 4, 2013, at 5:21 PM
Well, considering how he got pounded on Day 1, he is not looking too good and he didn't look good in spring training either. He had a very high ERA in ST. And now its carried over to start the season.

-- Posted by Jolly Dump on Thu, Apr 4, 2013, at 5:43 PM
I'm more concerned with the intensity at which he had to strain to pitch 85 pitches because he is trying to keep them down and his body after the weight loss is literally trying to throw it 95-96 mph on the fastballs. I think that is the case. But as far as his ERA is concerned do you really think he is going to give a ER every 4 IP? No that's why ERA isn't really a good evaluation of skill especially when dealing with SSS

-- Posted by Bunk on Thu, Apr 4, 2013, at 5:49 PM
No, but an ERA of 4, which is what he had last year, does not cut it for me. And yes, ERA is not technically a great factor by itself, but I know after I saw him pitch this season, including spring training, he is getting jacked by the batters he is facing. And I mean he is struggling. I hope Motte gets back soon so Salas will get sent down.

-- Posted by Jolly Dump on Thu, Apr 4, 2013, at 7:43 PM
Yeah Salas while in a tough spot needs to get with the program and attempt to not suck in order to save his job. It was seriously between him and Scrabble as the guys who had great 2011 and horrible 2012 and are fighting for a job. Scrabble looked way better than he did last year.

-- Posted by Bunk on Fri, Apr 5, 2013, at 1:22 AM
Two questions(kind of the same actually

The other day Fox Sports had a question of who do you think would be called up first for the Cardinals? What are your thoughts?

Second question is what are your feelings on Beltran? I'm not liking what I'm seeing from him in the outfield and really feel that this year is going to be a battle to keep him in the line up as the year progresses.

So, that being said, that's why my vote goes to Taveras being called up first. I believe that he will have to fill the void sooner, than later.

-- Posted by Kobeyashi on Fri, Apr 5, 2013, at 8:08 AM
Also do you think the Cards will continue with Kozma, or at some point go with a possible trade for Jurickson Profar? Which most people believe would involve Taveras?

Also I'm not just talking about for this year starting Profar, but for future references too.

-- Posted by Kobeyashi on Fri, Apr 5, 2013, at 8:15 AM
I know I'm no expert but I don't think Profar is going anywhere. He will either play 2nd or SS with Andrus with Kinsler moving to RF when Cruz isn't resigned this offseason. We would have to give up Taveras and at least one pitcher in order to get Profar so I don't think Mo does it

-- Posted by Bunk on Fri, Apr 5, 2013, at 10:00 AM
That's a terrible trade in my opinion. Tavares is much better than Profar.

-- Posted by Jolly Dump on Fri, Apr 5, 2013, at 11:35 AM
You have to remember that Profar is a SS so that makes him much valuable defensively

-- Posted by Bunk on Fri, Apr 5, 2013, at 1:16 PM
Yes I realize that, but it change the fact that you are giving up a solid Outfielder. OF depth will be a problem in a few years.

-- Posted by Jolly Dump on Fri, Apr 5, 2013, at 3:50 PM

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