Carpenter return likely to play major role in trade deadline

Everyone wants to see it happen.

For Chris Carpenter to once again defy the odds and sink his cleats into a big league mound would have been a shock in April.

In some ways, it still would be.

But baseball fans live for that shock. We like to be surprised.

Carpenter has given out quite a few over the years - last year is no exception.

When Carpenter returned in 2012 with no rehab assignment, the odds were stacked against him. He took the mound anyway.

No, he was not the Chris Carpenter of old, but the fight he has always carried was right there with him.

Some of that fight could be seen when he made his 2013 debut with the Double-A Springfield Cardinals Monday night. He was sharp early on and had good command of his off-speed pitches, but it waned in the third inning.

Again, he wasn't vintage Carpenter, but in his first rehab start it's not fair to expect him to be. That's not how rehab works.

He will be able to make two (possibly three) additional starts before the July 31 trade deadline. That's very fortunate for the Cardinals in some ways.

If he makes several starts, it means the Cardinals' front office will have time to gauge his performance in relation to where the big league club stands. By doing so, they will be able to determine whether the team will be in play for a starting pitcher via trade before the non-waiver deadline.

If Carpenter looks promising, he would be nearing a promotion by that time which would, in effect, be like a trade without the cost for the Cardinals.

This scenario only applies if Carpenter is pitching at least close to his ability and is doing so without pain.

If not, the Cardinals will find themselves either in the market for a starting pitcher or promoting Carlos Martinez to a starter role.

A potential Carpenter return could also make things difficult for the Cardinals if they decide to look outside of the organization for help.

If he experiences additional pain or can't seem to find his groove, then the Cardinals will be left to make their decision with little time on the clock.

If that decision involves a trade, the front office won't have a lot of time to make it happen. Rush deals will always have a higher cost for the buyer than the seller.

There's also the concern that many of the better arms will be gone by that point.

That could, however, be a moot point for the Cardinals anyhow since several of those arms - Matt Garza, Yovani Gallardo - are within the NL Central. Mozeliak has noted before a reluctance to deal top prospects within the Cardinals own division.

At this point, the weight rests on Carpenter's shoulders and he's used to that.

His 2013 debut appearance left a lot to be desired (two earned runs on six hits in 2.2 innings), but it's doubtful anyone is more upset with the performance than Carpenter himself.

It's only his first rehab start so don't panic or start discussing how "he isn't going to return." There's no way to make that judgment at this point and it's not fair to Carpenter or the organization.

He's made it happen before and after all he's done for this team, he's earned the right to prove himself again.

His less than stellar performance Monday night could be just the fuel Carpenter needs to amp his game back up to the next level and show the world that he still has some magic left in him.

If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Carpenter. The size of the jackpot is worth the risk.

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Corey Noles is a Cardinals Writer and Columnist for The Daily Statesman. Contact him at cnoles@dailystatesman.com or on Twitter @coreynoles.